Opinion Polling For The 2020 New Zealand General Election
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Several polling firms conducted
opinion polls An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election) is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions ...
during the term of the
52nd New Zealand Parliament The 52nd New Zealand Parliament was a session of legislature in New Zealand, which opened on 7 November 2017 following the 2017 general election and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The New Zealand Parliament comprises the Sovereign (represented ...
in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second
COVID-19 outbreak The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified ...
it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020. Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles. The two regular polls are
Television New Zealand , type = Crown entity , industry = Broadcast television , num_locations = New Zealand , location = Auckland, New Zealand , area_served = Nationally (New Zealand) and some Pacific Island nations such as the Cook Islands, Fiji, and the Solom ...
(''
1 News ''1 News'' (stylised as ''1News'') is the news division of New Zealand television network TVNZ. The service is broadcast live from TVNZ Centre in Auckland. The flagship news bulletin is the nightly 6 pm news hour, but ''1 News'' also has ...
''), conducted by
Colmar Brunton Colmar Brunton was a market research agency founded in New Zealand in 1981. It was later merged with Kantar in both Australia and New Zealand in 2020–21. Services There are two Colmar Brunton organizations, which operate in the Asia Pacific ...
, and
MediaWorks New Zealand MediaWorks New Zealand is a New Zealand-based company specialising in radio, outdoor advertising and interactive media. It is jointly owned by U.S. company Oaktree Capital Management and out-of-home advertising company QMS. It operates nine n ...
(
Newshub ''Newshub'' (stylised as ''Newshub.'') is a New Zealand news service that airs on the television channels Three and Eden, as well as on digital platforms. It formerly operated across radio stations run by MediaWorks Radio until December 202 ...
) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from
Roy Morgan Research Roy Morgan, formerly known as Roy Morgan Research, is an independent Australian social and political market research and public opinion statistics company headquartered in Melbourne, Victoria. It operates nationally as Roy Morgan and internation ...
. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.


Party vote


Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.


Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations. The parties shown in the table are
National National may refer to: Common uses * Nation or country ** Nationality – a ''national'' is a person who is subject to a nation, regardless of whether the person has full rights as a citizen Places in the United States * National, Maryland, ce ...
(NAT),
Labour Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth, the delivery of a baby * Labour (human activity), or work ** Manual labour, physical work ** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer ** Organized labour and the labour ...
(LAB),
New Zealand First New Zealand First ( mi, Aotearoa Tuatahi), commonly abbreviated to NZ First, is a nationalist and populist political party in New Zealand. The party formed in July 1993 following the resignation on 19 March 1993 of its leader and founder, Winst ...
(NZF),
Green Green is the color between cyan and yellow on the visible spectrum. It is evoked by light which has a dominant wavelength of roughly 495570 Nanometre, nm. In subtractive color systems, used in painting and color printing, it is created by ...
(GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP),
Māori Māori or Maori can refer to: Relating to the Māori people * Māori people of New Zealand, or members of that group * Māori language, the language of the Māori people of New Zealand * Māori culture * Cook Islanders, the Māori people of the C ...
(MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and
Advance New Zealand The Advance New Zealand Party (abbreviated as Advance NZ or Advance) was a short-lived political party in New Zealand from 2020 to 2021. The idea was first unveiled in a newsletter from founder Jami-Lee Ross in April 2020. Ross has claimed th ...
(ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.


UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.


Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.


Government approval rating


Electorate polling


Auckland Central


East Coast East Coast may refer to: Entertainment * East Coast hip hop, a subgenre of hip hop * East Coast (ASAP Ferg song), "East Coast" (ASAP Ferg song), 2017 * East Coast (Saves the Day song), "East Coast" (Saves the Day song), 2004 * East Coast FM, a ra ...


Northland


Hauraki-Waikato Hauraki-Waikato is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate first established for the . It largely replaced the electorate. Nanaia Mahuta of the Labour Party, formerly the MP for Tainui, became MP for Hauraki-Waikato in the 2008 general ...


Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate. It was formed for the and held by Parekura Horomia of the Labour Party until his death in 2013. A by-election to replace him was held on 29 June 2013 and was won by Labour's Me ...


Tāmaki Makaurau Tāmaki Makaurau is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives. It was first formed for the . The electorate covers the Auckland area and was first held by Labour ...


Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Hauāuru electorate boundaries used since the Te Tai Hauāuru is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives, that was first formed for the . The electorat ...


Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tokerau () is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate that was created out of the Northern Maori electorate ahead of the first Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) election in 1996. It was held first by Tau Henare representing New Zea ...


Te Tai Tonga Te Tai Tonga is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorates, Māori electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand New Zealand House of Representatives, House of Representatives. It was established for the 1996 New Zealand ...


Waiariki


Forecasts


See also

*
Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (''1 N ...
*
2017 New Zealand general election The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 20 ...
* Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election * Politics of New Zealand


Notes


References

{{NZ general polling 2020 New Zealand general election